In past articles, we discussed a proposed Coronavirus stress test under CCAR (HERE) and provided our COVID-19 probabilities of default and loss given defaults for a model bank portfolio (HERE). In this article, we update our CRE modeling and take a deeper dive into loan-level analysis in order to help banks triage and manage both individual credits and their portfolio-level reserves.
If you are in the military or public safety and have participated in a tactical operation center, you are likely familiar with the "Planning P." The Planning P is a national framework that helps quickly assimilate information and drive to decisions. This is exactly what is needed in any fast-moving event, such as if your bank has been involved in the production of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans. It is also a great tool for any leader or manager to have, as many of these concepts are applicable to everyday business activity.
The Coronavirus is simultaneously disrupting supply and demand in the world economy. The shock to the economy will have a profound effect on the US economy, and community banks will not be immune from this disruption. It appears that a global recession is inevitable, but the full extent of damage to the banking industry is unclear. However, there are some troubling signs that many banks may be unprepared for the severity and length of this recession and the exten
Go to any Trader Joe's market and then go to a competing market, and you will be likely to find a significant difference. Trader Joe's has produced a COVID-19 response that is thoughtful, practical, relatively inexpensive, and caring.
The economic implications of coronavirus are expected to be widespread and are already causing some borrowers to be concerned about their ability to make loan payments. Many of our bank customers have used the ARC program to fix rates for borrowers while retaining a variable rate. Some of these borrowers in profoundly affected sectors, such as restaurants, hotels, and theaters, are now approaching the lending banks to discuss loan payment relief.