What is with all the waving we do at the end of Zoom calls? Should we start waving as we back out of the room for in-person meetings in the future? By the same token, many banks are baffled by what to do with the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP), as this is not something we would do in normal times. Yet, we found ourselves both participating and waiving at the end of those MSLP Zoom calls. No matter if your bank is going to participate in MSLP or not, understanding the risk involved is a master class in loan structuring and credit.
Covid-19 has changed many aspects of banking from branch operations to credit underwriting and remote supervision of employees. Many community bank managers are physically distanced from their teams because of the pandemic. This distancing creates new challenges on how to supervise, motivate, communicate with, coach, train, and review bankers. We face this same challenge and we would like to share how we see other bank managers handle this challenge as well.
In past articles, we discussed a proposed Coronavirus stress test under CCAR (HERE) and provided our COVID-19 probabilities of default and loss given defaults for a model bank portfolio (HERE). In this article, we update our CRE modeling and take a deeper dive into loan-level analysis in order to help banks triage and manage both individual credits and their portfolio-level reserves.
While we discussed our framework for deciding WHEN to call bank employees back to the branch lobbies and workplace (HERE), in this article, we cover HOW. The two decisions are interrelated since the sooner you look to reopen, the more risk you take, and the more resources you have to invest in a reopening plan.
If we are going to “reopen America,” it helps to have a quantitative approach to make sure we are making the right decision. Since we are dealing with people’s lives and livelihood, this will be the most critical decision that most of us will ever have to make in their entire professional careers. Everyone wants to get America back to normalcy and recall our employees back to the workplace, but the debate is over when.
Community bankers are busy serving their customers and protecting their balance sheets as we respond to the Coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic havoc. Just as prudent bankers were strategically planning for the next recession before any signs of this downturn, forward-thinking community bankers will very soon be contemplating their strategy for doing business after the current recession. We cannot pretend to know precisely how the medical development of
We have been writing on the various strategies available to community banks when structuring commercial loans in this current challenging business and credit environment. With the flat and low yield curve, we have discussed how banks may offer commercial loans through the ARC hedge program using two different strategies: 1) embedded floors, and 2) forward starting floaters.
Go to any Trader Joe's market and then go to a competing market, and you will be likely to find a significant difference. Trader Joe's has produced a COVID-19 response that is thoughtful, practical, relatively inexpensive, and caring.