It was only two years ago when we were in the golden age of banking. The ten-year treasury was above 3%, loan growth was strong, funding cost was low, and credit quality was near its high - if not at record highs for some banks. Fast forward today, and you have a 0.67% ten-year, a large chunk of your balance sheet in forbearance, deteriorating credit quality, and margins near record lows. There are some obvious things that you should be doing to ensure you can survive in the long run.
It is around this time before a presidential election that bankers start to ponder how the results of the election will affect credit, interest rates, and the general business environment. The stock and the acceptable answer is that presidents get too much credit when the economy does well and too much blame when it slumps. The complex and intertwined US capitalist economy goes through boom-and-bust cycles independent of any president’s actions.
The future path of the economy is currently unpredictable. Still, the majority of banks have now eliminated two possible scenarios: 1) Best case scenario – that nothing will change from February 2020; and 2) Worst case scenario – that the pandemic will not end in the foreseeable future and banks should avoid loans and invest in riskless securities.
As you wind down and clean up Round 2 of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and before you produce your 1502 report to the SBA, it now merits thinking about how to best set up for the wave of forgiveness work that starts immediately after funding. Obtaining forgiveness is critical to both the bank and the borrower as it increases profitability, enhances cash flow, aids in liquidity and removes the risk for both parties. Unlike the origination process, banks now of the luxury of some time to get this process right.
The Coronavirus is simultaneously disrupting supply and demand in the world economy. The shock to the economy will have a profound effect on the US economy, and community banks will not be immune from this disruption. It appears that a global recession is inevitable, but the full extent of damage to the banking industry is unclear. However, there are some troubling signs that many banks may be unprepared for the severity and length of this recession and the exten
We have often characterized banks as being “manufacturers of credit.” Like any manufacturing process, banks need to produce a product, in our case loans, to meet the customer’s demand. Loan production takes inputs such as capital, analysis, and documents and combines them in a standardized process to produce an end product. The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) has presented a tremendous challenge for banks. After three days of manufacturing credit, we have honed ten essential concepts that may help your bank do more than its fair share of getting America going again.
Go to any Trader Joe's market and then go to a competing market, and you will be likely to find a significant difference. Trader Joe's has produced a COVID-19 response that is thoughtful, practical, relatively inexpensive, and caring.
There is now little doubt that the coronavirus will spread globally and will cause more supply and demand shocks in the market. While economic activity will slow, the amount and duration of the slowdown are big unknowns. Community banks may not have exposure to Chinese markets and may not have significant exposure to the energy sector.
A common line of thinking in the banking industry, especially regulators, is that recessions are driven by, or at least exacerbated by, the supply of credit. Banks, in an effort to stay competitive, tend to drop their lending standards to hit their loan growth targets. In doing so, these banks take on more and more risk. This occurs until the credit cycle turns, and then banks run into credit problems. However, what happens if banks are watching the wrong competitors? While surely recessions are a function of credit supply, maybe recessions have more to do with demand?
No doubt, you hear all about how your competitors are winning deals because they are more aggressive when it comes to underwriting. While banks must always ask if they are taking the right risks and the right amount of risk, it is probably the competitors that you are not watching that is causing you the greatest risk. In this short article, we explore one often overlooked aspect of competitor surveillance and how this one technique can help protect your bank.